2025 YEAR IN REVIEW: San Francisco’s Comeback

The Year Daniel Lurie Reminded Us What Leadership Looks Like

San Francisco Had a Good Year

Something shifted in San Francisco this year.

It wasn’t just one thing. It was a mayor who showed up every day with a plan and the discipline to execute it. It was $29 billion in venture capital pouring into AI companies in the first half of the year alone. It was property crime plummeting 25% to its lowest level in over a decade. It was violent crime dropping 13.6%. It was the palpable feeling, walking through Hayes Valley or along the Embarcadero, that this city had decided to stop apologizing for itself and start building again.

Mayor Daniel Lurie inherited a city that much of America had written off. The doom loop. The home of ‘bipping’ and smash-and-grabs. The national media treating San Francisco as shorthand for urban failure. And in year one, he delivered something remarkable: proof that the pessimists were wrong.

Key Takeaways

• 🏠 Property Crime: Down 24.7% in 2025, and 45.7% from 2023 to 2025 (66,130 → 35,924 incidents), the lowest level in over a decade. 36 of 41 neighborhoods saw double-digit drops. 👉 Dashboard Link

• 🚨 Violent Crime: Down 13.6% in 2025 and a total of 24% down from 2023 to 2025. 👉 Dashboard Link

• 🚗 Motor Vehicle Theft: Down 43.5% with 500+ stolen vehicles recovered through CHP partnerships and license plate reader technology.

• 💊 Fatal Overdoses: 537 people died of drug overdoses in San Francisco in 2025, compared to 544 in the same period of 2024, a slight decrease of 7 deaths (-1.3%). 👉Dashboard Link

• 📞 Overdose 911 Calls: Up slightly to 3,044 calls through November 30, 2025, from 3,035 in the same period of 2024 (+0.3%). While still well below the 4,274 calls in the same period of 2023, the year-over-year trend has flattened. 👉 Dashboard Link

• 🏪 Retail Closures: Down 28.1% (884 in 2024 → 636 in 2025) as of Dec 28. Monthly closures dropped from 95-120 in mid-year to just 10-20 by fall. 👉 Dashboard Link

• 🍽️ Restaurant Permits: Processing time down 70% (133 → 40 days)

• 🚦 Speeding Reduction: Red light camera citations down 41%. Speeding down 72-82% at Automated Speed Enforcement camera locations. Two-thirds of cited drivers never reoffended. 👉 Dashboard Link

• 🚁 SFPD Drone Flights: Up 234% year-to-date (313 → 1,046 flights) facilitating at least 43 arrests. 👉 Dashboard Link

• 🏗️ Housing Completions: Up 50.5% (1,657 → 2,494 units) 👉 Dashboard Link

The numbers are staggering. And they’re not accidents. They’re the result of specific policies producing results: technology-driven policing, treatment beds that saved lives, speed cameras that slowed traffic, permit reforms that proved City Hall can actually function.

Small business is stabilizing too. After a brutal 2024 that saw 884 retail closures, the bleeding slowed dramatically: just 636 closures in 2025 as of December 28, with monthly closures dropping to just 10 to 20 per month by fall. Restaurant permit processing times fell 70%, from 133 days to 40 days. The city is learning to get out of its own way.

And then there’s the economic revival.

San Francisco didn’t just participate in 2025’s defining technological moment. It became its undisputed global capital. AI firms leased nearly 1 million square feet of office space this year alone, with projections targeting 12 to 15 million square feet in the coming years. Companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks aren’t just headquartered here; they’re expanding, hiring, and betting on this city.

Office visits are up 21.6% year over year. The Downtown Development Corporation just announced over $60 million in private commitments from Google, Amazon, OpenAI, and others to revitalize downtown. The Moscone Center hosted 34 conventions (up from 25 in 2024), driving a 64% increase in hotel bookings. A GrowSF poll showed, for the first time since March 2020, more San Franciscans believe the city is heading in the right direction than on the wrong track.

The confluence of these forces, visionary municipal leadership meeting a historic technology boom, has created something San Francisco hasn’t felt in years: momentum.

This report is a data-driven accounting of what happened in 2025 and why. It’s the story of specific policies producing specific results. It’s also an honest look at what still needs work, because credibility matters and we’re not done yet.

But make no mistake about the headline: Mayor Daniel Lurie’s first year worked. The data proves it. The city feels it. And if year one delivered these results, imagine what’s coming next.

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The Big Wins: What Actually Happened and Why

1. Property Crime Collapsed (Yes, Collapsed)

Let’s start with the number that would have seemed impossible two years ago: property crime in San Francisco dropped 45.7% between 2023 and 2025.

From 66,130 incidents to 35,924. The lowest level in over a decade. You can see the decline month by month in the chart below.

This was the result of a coordinated strategy combining technology, targeted enforcement, and multi-agency partnerships that fundamentally changed how San Francisco fights crime.

The technology revolution: The SFPD Real-Time Investigation Center (RTIC), launched in 2024, transformed police response. Drones deployed as first responders had already facilitated 43 arrests by April of 2025, sending a clear signal to would-be car thieves. Automated license plate readers led to 207 arrests. Real-time data analysis allowed commanders to deploy resources where they were actually needed, not where they’d always been sent.

These technologies served as force multipliers for a department operating at roughly 1,475 to 1,500 officers, well below the recommended 2,000+. When you can’t hire your way to safety, you innovate your way there.

State partnerships that actually worked: Expanded collaboration with California Highway Patrol crime suppression teams proved particularly effective against auto theft. The results: approximately 250 Bay Area arrests, 500+ stolen vehicle recoveries, and 30+ illicit firearms seized. Motor vehicle theft, the crime that defined San Francisco’s national reputation, dropped 43.5%.

Tougher prosecution: District Attorney Brooke Jenkins implemented policies emphasizing accountability for serious crimes and repeat offenders. Charging rates increased from 54% in 2023 to 57.9% in 2024. Conviction rates improved from 38.8% to 41.5%. When criminals know there are consequences, behavior changes.

The geographic spread tells its own story. Lincoln Park led with a 62.7% reduction in property crime. Golden Gate Park: 56.8%. McLaren Park: 48.2%. North Beach: 47.0%. Visitacion Valley: 45.3%.

Car break-ins, the crime that launched a thousand “San Francisco is dying” takes? Down to 22-year lows.

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2. Violent Crime Dropped 13.6%

The property crime story is remarkable. The violent crime story matters even more.

Violent crime decreased 13.6% this year and a total of 20% between 2023 and 2025, from 15,068 incidents to 12,100 through December 26.

Homicides are on track to reach their lowest rate since 1954. There have been 28 homicides in San Francisco so far this year, and the last low was 27 homicides in 1954.

The neighborhood improvements were widespread, but some neighborhoods didn’t fare so well:

• North Beach: 26.3% reduction

• Potrero Hill: 35.4% decrease

• Chinatown: 3.5% INCREASE

• Excelsior: 29.6% reduction

• Outer Mission: 28.1% reduction

• Mission: 16.5% reduction

• Visitacion Valley: 10.9% INCREASE

The Drug Market Agency Coordination Center (DMACC), established in May 2023, brought local, state, and federal partners together to target open-air drug markets. Results: over 3,000 arrests in its first year and 200+ kilograms of narcotics seized.

Here’s a number that looks bad but is actually good: drug-related incidents increased 52%, from 4,282 in 2023 to 6,543 in 2025. That’s not more drugs on the streets. That’s more enforcement. When police actively sweep drug markets, incident counts go up because officers are doing their jobs. The results of that enforcement show up in the violent crime numbers and the overdose deaths.

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3. The Overdose Crisis: Real Progress, More Work Needed

Here’s the headline: When comparing apples to apples across the available data periods, the overdose picture is mixed.

Fatal Overdoses (through October 31): 537 people died of drug overdoses in San Francisco in 2025, compared to 544 in the same period of 2024, a slight decrease of 7 deaths (-1.3%). While this represents the second consecutive year of declining overdose deaths, the current total remains 23% lower than the peak of 701 deaths recorded during the same period in 2023, but still 5% higher than the pre-spike level of 511 deaths in 2022. This suggests that while the crisis has moderated from its worst point, overdose fatalities remain elevated compared to historical levels.

Overdose-Related 911 Calls (through November 30): Emergency calls remained essentially flat, with 3,044 calls in 2025 compared to 3,035 in 2024—a minimal increase of just 9 calls (+0.3%). This continues a multi-year decline from the peak of 4,557 calls in 2023.

Narcan Deployments (through December 25): Police naloxone deployments increased significantly, with 160 deployments in 2025 through December 25, compared to 126 in 2024—a 27% increase. This likely reflects both increased police training and deployment of naloxone as well as continued overdose incidents requiring intervention.

The specifics: $27.6 million in state grants funded 73 new treatment beds (57 locked subacute beds for intensive care, 16 dual-diagnosis beds for people dealing with both mental health and substance use). The administration reorganized scattered street outreach teams into an integrated model. And the 24/7 police-friendly stabilization centers gave officers somewhere to bring people besides jail or the ER.

But let’s be honest about what the data shows.

The naloxone deployment map reveals where crisis remains concentrated. Every naloxone reversal represents a life saved, yes, but it also represents someone who nearly died. The 27% increase in police naloxone deployments, combined with stable death rates, suggests the intervention system is working to prevent deaths but that overdose incidents remain frequent.

The stabilization in deaths and 911 calls, rather than dramatic decreases, reflects the reality of addressing a complex public health crisis. Even with 73 new beds, the city is still roughly 200 beds short of needed capacity. The “Breaking the Cycle” initiative is working to prevent the worst outcomes. It needs to scale faster to address the underlying crisis.

4. Small Business: The Bleeding Stopped

After a brutal stretch that had many wondering if San Francisco’s neighborhood retail would survive, 2025 brought stabilization.

Retail business closures dropped 31.6%, from 829 in 2024 to 567 in 2025. More telling: monthly closures plummeted from 95 to 120 in May and June to just 10 to 20 per month by October through December.

The turnaround wasn’t uniform. District 3 (Chinatown/North Beach) experienced the highest closure count at 107, followed by District 6 (SoMa/Tenderloin) at 98 and District 9 (Mission) at 65.

The pattern is clear: smaller, neighborhood-focused businesses are outperforming traditional retail formats. The bifurcation between neighborhood retail (stabilizing) and downtown retail (still struggling) continues, but the overall trajectory finally turned positive.

Housing development helped. The city completed 2,494 new units in 2025 through November 30, a 50.5% increase from 1,657 in 2024. More residents means more customers for neighborhood businesses.

The small business story isn’t a victory lap yet. But after years of bleeding, the wound is finally closing.

5. Permitting: City Hall Learned to Function

For years, getting anything permitted in San Francisco felt like navigating a Kafka novel. In 2025, the PermitSF initiative proved that bureaucratic dysfunction isn’t destiny.

Restaurant permits, typically the most regulatory-tangled category, saw processing times drop from 133 days in 2024 to 40 days in 2025. That’s a 70% improvement.

Current averages:

• Restaurant permits: 40 days

• Retail business permits: 37.2 days

Building permits improved across the board:

• Additions/alterations: 172 days (down 41% from 289 days in 2024)

• Sign permits: 73 days (down 50% from 146 days)

• OTC alterations: 67 days (down 52% from 139 days)

Geographic disparities persist. District 5 has the longest restaurant permit times at 94.5 days; District 11 processes them in 2.1 days. That gap is a target for 2026.

Solar permits tell the same story: processing time dropped to 74.3 days (down 11.8% from 85.1 days), and installations surged 33.7% as a result.

This isn’t primarily a climate or small business story. It’s a governance story. When City Hall decides to actually function, results follow. The same approach that cut permit times can apply to housing, to business licensing, to every interaction residents and entrepreneurs have with local government.

San Francisco’s infamous bureaucracy isn’t a law of physics. It’s a policy choice. And better choices produce better outcomes.

6. Downtown: From Doom Loop to Revival Story

Remember the “doom loop”? The narrative that said downtown San Francisco would never recover, that remote work had permanently hollowed out the urban core?

The 2025 data says otherwise.

Office visits are up 21.6% year over year. Commercial asking rents increased nearly 9%. Retail building sale prices jumped 31%. The Moscone Center hosted 34 conventions (up from 25 in 2024), driving a 64% increase in hotel bookings. Downtown First Thursdays attracted over 300,000 visitors.

The Downtown Development Corporation secured over $60 million in private commitments from Google, Amazon, OpenAI, Ripple, and others. The Market Street Safety Program delivered a 53% reduction in safety-related 911 calls at Embarcadero and Montgomery BART stations.

The AI boom deserves credit. When OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks expand and bring thousands of workers back to offices, that creates cascading benefits: more restaurants, more retail traffic, more reasons for other businesses to bet on downtown. San Francisco has become the center of the country, and probably the world, of AI startups.

But the boom alone wouldn’t have done it. Mayor Lurie’s Heart of the City initiative, the Vacant to Vibrant program (21 storefronts filled, 26 more expected), expanded clean and safe services: these created conditions for private investment to flourish.

As OpenAI’s Chris Lehane put it: “The leadership of Mayor Lurie will mean more and more people who left their hearts in San Francisco will be coming back.”

7. Speeding Meets Consequences

In March, San Francisco became the first city in California to launch Automated Speed Enforcement. The results exceeded expectations.

Speeding dropped 72% to 82% at monitored locations. Average speeds fell by 4 mph and are now below posted limits at every measured site. Two-thirds of drivers who got warned or ticketed never reoffended.

The program deployed cameras at 33 high-injury network locations across all 11 supervisorial districts. Fines range from $50 to $500.

Speeding is the leading cause of severe and fatal crashes in San Francisco. The city had 42 traffic deaths in 2024. These cameras aren’t revenue generators. They’re life-savers. In 2025, there have been 23 total traffic deaths in San Francisco for 2025 (as of mid-December), including 16 pedestrian fatalities.

The most dangerous violations (21+ mph over the limit) dropped significantly. Technology plus enforcement plus consequences. The formula works.

The Honest Part: What Still Needs Work

Treatment Capacity: Even with 73 new beds, San Francisco is roughly 200 beds short of what’s needed. The overdose death decline is real, but the number of near-fatal overdoses requiring naloxone reversals shows the crisis isn’t over. More capacity is coming. It needs to come faster.

Hotspot Districts: Districts 5 (Tenderloin/Western Addition) and 6 (South of Market) still have the highest absolute crime numbers. SoMa actually saw a small increase in property crime, bucking the citywide trend.

SFPD Staffing: The department is operating with roughly 1,475 to 1,500 officers, well below the 2,000+ recommended. Mayor Lurie’s “Rebuilding the Ranks” initiative aims to fill 500+ vacancies. Technology has been a force multiplier, but there’s no substitute for boots on the ground.

Housing Production: Permit processing is faster. We’re still not building at the pace needed for affordability.

Downtown Recovery Incomplete: Office visits up 21.6% is great. Still down 34% from pre-pandemic. The trajectory is right. The destination isn’t reached.

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What It All Means

The story of 2025 is about causation, not correlation.

Property crime down 24.7%? Because drones, license plate readers, and state partnerships gave SFPD capabilities it never had before. Violent crime down 13.6%? Because DMACC coordinated enforcement across agencies. Overdoses down? Because treatment beds and stabilization centers gave people real options. Permits faster? Because PermitSF proved that bureaucracy is a choice, not a fate. Small business stabilizing? Because crime dropped, permits accelerated, and housing brought more customers to neighborhood corridors. Downtown reviving? Because public investment created conditions for private capital.

Add the AI revolution choosing San Francisco as its global home, and you have a city experiencing genuine momentum for the first time in years.

Mayor Lurie inherited a city written off by half the country. In year one, he delivered measurable progress across public safety, health, economic development, small business, transportation, and basic government competence.

Looking Ahead: 2026

The policies driving these improvements are still ramping up. “Breaking the Cycle” is hitting its stride. Speed cameras are expanding. Permit streamlining is spreading. The Downtown Development Corporation is deploying tens of millions in new investment. SFPD is rebuilding its ranks.

If year one delivered these numbers, year two has room to accelerate.

San Francisco spent years as a cautionary tale. In 2025, it became a comeback story.

Happy New Year, San Francisco. We earned this one.

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