Housing Momentum Holds as Crime and Fires Shift in May
San Francisco’s housing pace stays strong despite a sharp monthly dip; crime rebounds, fire incidents hit new lows.
Key Takeaways
🏠 Housing Completions: Fell by 411 units (-60%) from April, but year-to-date totals are nearly triple last year’s—showing the city’s housing push is still gaining ground.
🔒 Property Crime: Rose by 271 incidents (+10%) citywide in May, breaking a months-long downward streak—though District 10 saw a drop, bucking the trend.
🔥 Fire Incidents: Dropped by 449 reports (-18%) in May, with several districts seeing declines over 30%—a rare bright spot in public safety.
🏠 Housing: May’s Completion Numbers Dip, But Momentum Remains
From Plunge to Progress: San Francisco’s Housing Rollercoaster
San Francisco’s housing pipeline slowed sharply in May, with just 270 new units completed—a 60% drop from April’s unusually high 681 units. While this monthly dip may raise eyebrows, the broader trend is more encouraging: year-to-date completions have reached 1,579, nearly triple last year’s pace for the same period.
This volatility in monthly completions is typical for San Francisco, where construction often clusters, leading to bursts of activity followed by quieter months. April’s surge was driven by several large projects, including a 501-unit development at 555 Bryant Street, plus significant contributions from 1151 Fairfax Avenue (76 units) and 240 Van Ness Avenue (112 units). In contrast, May’s largest completions—98 units at 4200 Geary Boulevard and 67 at 151 Freidell Street—couldn’t match April’s scale. The remainder of May’s new housing came from smaller projects, many with five units or fewer, typically finalized under Certificates of Final Completion (CFC), which often mark the end of smaller or previously started developments.
The city’s annual housing output has fluctuated in recent years, with 2024 closing at 1,661 units—an improvement, though still below historical highs. Despite May’s slowdown, the 2025 trend line points upward, on pace to surpass 2024’s full-year total total in June, and offering a rare sign of progress in the city’s ongoing housing crunch.
Meanwhile, the development pipeline remains active: a formal application was submitted for a seven-story, 20-unit apartment building at 150 Porter Street in Bernal Heights, including three affordable units (sfyimby.com). In the Mission, the 168-unit Casa Adelante affordable housing project broke ground last month (whatnow.com), signaling continued momentum for community-led development.
Policy efforts are also underway. The SF Family Zoning Plan aims to boost density and affordability, especially along transit corridors, as the city works to meet state housing mandates (sfplanning.org).
While officials have not commented directly on May’s numbers, the steady stream of new proposals and groundbreakings suggests that, even when monthly stats wobble, San Francisco’s housing ambitions remain firmly in play.
🔒 Property Crime: May’s Numbers Rebound, But the Story Is Nuanced
Crime Rises Citywide—But Some Neighborhoods Defy the Trend
San Francisco’s property crime numbers rebounded in May, with reported incidents rising nearly 10% from April—3,046 cases compared to 2,775 the previous month. This uptick interrupts a strong downward trend, though year-to-date property crime remains down more than 24% from last year’s pace.
Still, the May increase stands out, especially after a recent run of positive news on the crime front (growsf.org).
Not every neighborhood followed the citywide pattern. Supervisor District 10, for example, saw property crime incidents fall by 4%—a sharp deviation from its usual contribution to the city’s totals.
The citywide increase appears to be driven by localized spikes, particularly in districts 5 and 6, where property crime rose in May, largely due to larceny theft
Read mode at (sfchronicle.com).
Such volatility is not unusual, as crime subcategories and neighborhood trends often move in different directions, sometimes masking broader improvements or setbacks.
Despite May’s jump, the longer-term trend remains positive: property crime in San Francisco is still down 29% compared to historical averages. The city’s patchwork of rising and falling numbers underscores the complexity of tracking crime—and the importance of keeping an eye on both the big picture and the local details.
🔥 Fire Incidents: May’s Numbers Drop, Bringing Relief
Fires Cool Off—Citywide and in Key Districts
San Francisco’s fire incident numbers cooled in May, with citywide reports dropping 18% compared to the previous month—down to 2,097 from April’s 2,546. This marks a notable shift in a key public safety metric, continuing a broader trend: year-to-date fire incidents have fallen 11% compared to last year.
The data, suggests that efforts to reduce fire risks are showing up in the numbers (data.sfgov.org).
The drop wasn’t just citywide. Several supervisor districts posted even steeper declines, with Districts 2 and 11 down more than 30% relative to April. There was also a notable increase in district 4.
These localized improvements hint at operational changes, community engagement, or perhaps just a collective decision to keep the matches in the drawer.
Looking at causes, intentional fires dropped about 46%, while incidents with undetermined ignition sources fell nearly 50%.
Whether this reflects sharper investigative work or a drop in arsonists with commitment issues, the result is the same: fewer fires, less guesswork. The city’s fire incident dashboard tracks these trends in detail (sf-fire.org).
This May’s decline fits a broader pattern: after a spike in 2024, fire incidents have leveled off and now appear to be heading downward. While the reasons behind these improvements remain unspoken in official circles, the numbers themselves offer a rare bit of good news for San Francisco’s public safety outlook. For now, the city can enjoy a little less smoke on the horizon.
Generated on 2024-06-06, by TransparentSF