September 2025: The Mission Miracle? Crime Falls Sharply in the Mission and the Rest of the City
Mission District violent crime hits 54 month low
Key Takeaways
🧰 Property Crime: Dropped 10.31% across San Francisco, indicating a further cooling in theft and break-ins. 👉 Dashboard link
💊 Drug Crime Incidents: Declined 6.48% citywide, continuing the gradual easing in narcotics-related reports. 👉 Dashboard link
🏢 Mission Property Crime Way Down: Down 44.61% in District 9, a notable improvement in neighborhood safety. 👉 Dashboard link
🚨 Mission Violent Crime Falls Too: Mission violent crime fell by 44 incidents (-25.3%) compared to its 24-month average and by 25 incidents (-16.1%) from August; citywide violent crime remains down -13.0% year-to-date. 👉 Dashboard link
And in non-crime news…
🚨 Homeless Complaint 911 Calls: Down 14.94% month over month, signaling fewer emergency calls tied to homelessness across the city. 👉 Dashboard link
🔥 Fire Incidents: Fell 12.93% citywide, a meaningful step-down in fire responses month over month. 👉 Dashboard link
🏗️ D9 Fire Incidents: Plunged 48.23% in District 9, marking the sharpest reduction among the city’s districts. 👉 Dashboard link
🏢 Business Registrations: And in not-so-sunny news, New Business Registrations slipped a further 7.3% month over month (897 in September vs 968 in August), now 27.8% under July and roughly 30% below the 24‑month average. 👉 Dashboard link
The Story in Data
In July, we reported that San Francisco crime had fallen to historic lows, with violent crime at its lowest point since April 2020 and property crime hitting levels not seen in over a decade. The question then was whether this represented a lasting shift or a momentary dip. Three months later, the answer is becoming clearer: the trend isn’t just holding—it’s accelerating, with the Mission now leading a citywide improvement that shows no signs of reversing.
🚨 Violent Crime is Down — And it’s down the most in the Mission
A sharp September decline in the Mission outpaced the broader citywide reduction, reinforcing 2025’s downward trend in violent crime.
Violent crime fell across San Francisco in September, and the Mission led the drop. Police recorded 130 violent incidents in the Mission in September 2025, the lowest monthly count since February 2021, when the district logged 114. That marks a 54-month low and aligns with a broader citywide decline this year.
The Mission’s numbers moved faster than the city’s overall trend. Crime has edged down through 2025 across San Francisco, but September’s Mission figures show a steeper improvement, suggesting local conditions are strengthening beyond the city average.
Key Finding: 54-Month Low in Violent Crime in the Mission
The comparison point matters. February 2021 came during pandemic restrictions that kept streets quieter and businesses limited. September’s 130 incidents arrived with schools in session, nightlife open, and normal foot traffic. Hitting a multi-year low under typical conditions carries more weight than a lower count recorded during shutdowns.
Taken together, the picture is clear. The Mission posted 130 violent incidents in September 2025, the fewest since February 2021’s 114. That is a 54-month low for the district and part of an ongoing citywide slide in violent crime.
The drop wasn’t confined to one offense. Aggravated assaults fell from 41 in August to 27 in September and accounted for 56 percent of the Mission’s overall decline. Robberies also moved down, from 32 to 24, across street, commercial, and other robbery categories. Those are the higher-harm crimes, and fewer of them means safer streets for residents and visitors. Simple assaults ticked up by two percent, but that increase did not change the overall downward trend.
This September decline isn’t an isolated event but part of a consistent downward trajectory throughout 2025. The Mission’s year-to-date violent crime total now sits approximately 16% below 2024 levels, outperforming even the citywide reduction of 13%.
By the Numbers: Property Crime: Districts with the Largest Declines
The most pronounced YTD decreases in property crime occurred in:
District 11: -35% (from about 1,853 to 1,121 incidents)
District 1: -31% (from 1,543 to 1,008)
District 3: -31% (from 5,105 to 3,392)
District 4: -30% (from 1,481 to 996)
District 10: -30% (from 3,565 to 2,385)
Note that District 6 saw a 2% increase YTD, bucking the citywide trend
Map showing percent change in YTD property crime from Jan-Sep 2024 to 2025 by supervisor district. Darker shades indicate larger decreases.
💊 But What’s Happening in Potrero Hill? Drug Crime Incidents Up 374%
Despite the progress across the city, there are still some areas to watch, including Potrero Hill.
Potrero Hill recorded 32 drug-crime reports in September 2025 vs a 24‑month baseline average of 6.75 — a +374% jump.
This represented about 6.9% of the September citywide total (462 incidents).
In the citywide neighborhood ranking for September, Potrero Hill was 4th by absolute count (behind Tenderloin 146, Mission 129, South of Market 109).
What’s happening at 17th & Carolina? That’s where all 32 of the incidents occurred. You can dive deeper here.
In Summary
Citywide public safety improved in September. Violent crime continued to fall, property crime cooled, and drug incidents eased. Emergency calls tied to homelessness and fire responses also moved lower, even as business registrations softened. The overall signal is a city trending safer on multiple fronts, not just one statistic.
Within that context, the Mission led the improvement and posted its lowest violent-crime level in years. The drop came under normal conditions and was driven by higher-harm offenses like aggravated assaults and robberies, which both receded at the same time. Simple assaults ticked up slightly but didn’t change the trajectory. District 9 also saw a sharp slide in property crime, reinforcing the neighborhood-level progress. Heading into the holidays, the question is whether this holds, but September reads as a real step forward for both the city and the Mission.
By TransparentSF, a Human & AI collaboration
Latest data available on the dashboard.