SF's Summer Surge—Business Booms, Crime Swings, and Homelessness Heats Up
Data shows backsliding on crime progress, but still on track for a record-breaking year.
Key Takeaway
🚨 Violent Crime: Jumped by 92 incidents (up 10.2%)—but year-to-date remains 13% below 2024, signaling a blip, not a reversal.
🆘 Homeless Complaint 911 Calls: Jumped by 99 (up 13.6%)—with increases seen across nearly every district.
🏢 New Business Registrations: Climbed by 59 (up 6.95%)—with local corridors like Noriega exploding by 242% over their two-year average.
💊 Drug Crime Incidents: Rose by 55 (up 11.2%)—keeping the city on a 47% year-to-date upward trajectory.
📜 NEW METRIC: Eviction Notices: Rose by 15 (up 14.3%)— Year-to-date eviction notices hit 932, already 111% higher than the same period in 2024.
The Story in Data
🚨 Violent Crime Ticks Up—But the Year Remains Safer
San Francisco’s violent crime numbers took a sharp turn upward in July, with 998 incidents reported—up from 906 in June, a 10.2% increase that translates to 92 additional incidents citywide.
This jump stands out, especially since the year-to-date tally still sits 13% below last year’s pace, suggesting July’s spike is more a blip than a reversal of fortune.
The increase wasn’t confined to a single corner of the city. District 11 led with an 88.9% jump (51 incidents, up from 27), District 2 rose 53.8% (40 up from 26), District 10 climbed 20.8% (116 up from 96), and District 3 increased 18.3% (123 up from 104).
Only a handful of districts, like District 1 and District 4, managed double-digit declines.
Despite July’s surge, the broader picture remains positive. Violent crime dropped 19% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, and homicides are down as well—11 so far this year versus 17 at this point last year. Other major categories, including robberies, burglaries, and assaults, have also declined, with assaults seeing the smallest drop at 12% (sfchronicle.com). These trends mirror other major U.S. cities, where violent crime rates have generally fallen in 2025 (counciloncj.org).
Mayor Daniel Lurie and Police Chief Bill Scott have acknowledged the challenges posed by violent crime and continue to emphasize community-based policing and violence prevention programs. While July’s numbers may raise eyebrows, officials remain focused on the long game, aiming to keep the city’s downward trend intact—even if the path isn’t always a straight line.
🏢 New Business Registrations Surge—Welcome Entrepreneurs!
San Francisco’s entrepreneurial spirit found new fuel in July 2025, as new business registrations climbed from 849 in June to 908—a 6.95% increase. This signals the city’s economic pulse is on the upswing.
This latest bump isn’t just a citywide affair led by districts 3, 6 and 9; it’s powered by some eye-catching local surges and a notable diversification in the types of businesses setting up shop.
One small-but-loud signal: the Noriega corridor recorded 7 registrations in July versus a prior 24-month average of 2—flagged as a 242% jump by the anomaly detector.
This wave of new businesses spans a diverse range of industries, construction led, posting 158 registrations versus a recent 24-month average of about 135, a gain of 17%. Gains were spread around the map. District 3 added 19 more registrations from June to July, District 6 added 18, and District 9 led the pack with 26.
This uptick arrives on the heels of significant policy changes. In January 2025, San Francisco implemented Proposition M, a voter-approved overhaul of the city’s business tax structure. The measure raised the small business exemption threshold from $2.25 million to $5 million in gross receipts, trimmed the number of tax categories from 14 to 7, and shifted the tax basis from payroll to sales. It also introduced new tax credits for certain industries and lessees in qualifying buildings, all in an effort to make the city more attractive for both startups and established firms. These reforms, designed to lower barriers and simplify compliance, may have played a role in the recent surge, as businesses respond to a more favorable tax environment (ryan.com).
The ongoing “First Year Free” program, which waives the initial registration fee for many new small businesses, likely sweetened the deal for would-be entrepreneurs (sftreasurer.org). The city’s registration process, which runs on an annual cycle from July 1 to June 30, requires detailed business information and fees based on projected gross receipts (sf.gov). With the new fiscal year underway, July’s spike could reflect both pent-up demand and a rush to take advantage of the latest incentives.
These trends paint a picture of a city in the midst of economic revitalization. As San Francisco continues to recover and evolve in the post-pandemic era, the concentrated growth in corridors like Noriega and the expanding variety of new enterprises suggest that the city’s business landscape is not just bouncing back—it’s branching out.
💊 Drug Crime Incidents Climb—Enforcement Up, Crisis Continues
San Francisco’s drug crime numbers are still heading north. July saw 545 drug crime incidents reported citywide, up from 490 in June—a jump of 11.2%, or 55 additional incidents. This latest increase keeps the city on a sharp year-to-date trajectory: drug crime incidents are now up 47% compared to last year. The city logged 4,146 drug crime incidents in 2024, well above the six-year average of 3,344.
The upward march isn’t confined to one neighborhood. District 5 reported 232 incidents in July, up 40.6% from June’s 165. District 2 saw an even more dramatic percentage leap, rising from 3 to 10 incidents—a 233% increase. District 10 also spiked, with 24 incidents compared to 9 last month. Not every district followed suit: District 11 dropped from 9 to 2 incidents, and District 8 fell from 8 to 2. Still, the overall citywide pattern is clear: most districts are seeing more drug crime, not less.
This steady rise comes as city officials double down on enforcement.
SFPD spokesperson Evan Sernoffsky recently noted that narcotics officers have made “more drug arrests in the last two years than any other time in the history of the city,” with a focus on possession and loitering arrests to “help disrupt drug markets” (sfchronicle.com).
Mayor Daniel Lurie’s administration has also prioritized breaking up open-air drug use and sales, reflected in a 40% jump in petty drug crime citations in early 2025 (sfchronicle.com).
Despite these efforts, the city’s drug crisis remains a complex challenge. Public health data show 358 overdose deaths so far in 2025, underscoring the deadly consequences of the ongoing epidemic (sfchronicle.com). While some neighborhoods, like the Mission District, have seen declines in most crime categories, drug offenses and public intoxication continue to surge (sfstandard.com).
As July’s numbers show, San Francisco’s drug crime problem is neither isolated nor abating. The city’s ongoing efforts—part enforcement, part public health—will have to contend with a trend that, for now, shows no sign of reversing.
💀 Homicides Double—A Stark July Spike
July brought a jarring spike in homicides across the city, with reported incidents jumping from 3 in June to 7 in July—a 133% increase in just one month.
This sharp uptick stands out even against the city’s historically fluctuating homicide rates, which have seen their share of peaks and valleys over the years.
The details matter: Five incidents were vehicular manslaughter, two were gun-related. The cases clustered in Districts 10 and 11 in southeastern neighborhoods, not the traditional hotspots.
While July’s jump is striking, it fits into a broader trend of volatility in the city’s homicide numbers. These fluctuations can stem from a range of factors—sometimes a cluster of isolated incidents, sometimes shifts in reporting or enforcement—but the data alone doesn’t reveal the underlying causes.
📜 Eviction Notices Spike—Warning Signs for Renters
San Francisco landlords filed 120 eviction notices in July 2025, up from 105 in June—a 14.29% increase. While an eviction notice doesn’t guarantee a tenant will lose their home, it does signal a shift in the city’s housing dynamics. The latest numbers continue a pattern of fluctuation, with eviction notices rising and falling over recent months, but July’s jump stands out as a reversion to the trend upward.
This uptick isn’t an isolated blip.
Year-to-date, eviction notices in 2025 have already outpaced last year’s total, suggesting that housing instability—or at least the paperwork that precedes it—is on the rise.
The city’s eviction landscape has always been a moving target, but the current trend points to more landlords signaling intent to remove tenants than in previous years.
District 6 nearly tripled, fueling a citywide surge; non-payment of rent is the main driver. If this pace continues, the city could surpass pre-pandemic volumes for the first time.
What’s clear is that the city’s housing challenges remain front and center, with eviction notices serving as a barometer for broader shifts in property management and tenant stability.
🆘 Homeless Complaint 911 Calls Jump—Citywide Concern on the Rise
July brought an uptick in San Francisco’s 911 calls about homeless complaints, with dispatchers fielding 825 calls—up from 726 in June. That 13.6% increase marks a shift in the city’s ongoing dance with homelessness, after a decline since April, as residents dialed in more frequently to report concerns.
The jump stands out even in a city accustomed to fluctuation, as the data shows no single extraordinary event driving the surge—just a rise woven into the city’s broader pattern of monthly and seasonal changes.
Where it's happening: District 6 (Tenderloin/SOMA) led with 270 calls, continuing its role as the city's primary hotspot. District 8 saw the sharpest percentage increase with 40 additional calls—a 174% jump. Districts 1 and 2 also posted notable increases of 83% and 45% respectively.
A closer look at the numbers reveals that this isn’t a sudden outlier, but part of a larger tapestry of ups and downs. Historical data shows that homeless complaint calls have swung widely over recent years, with warmer months often bringing higher call volumes.
While July’s numbers are high, they fit within a pattern of periodic spikes and dips, suggesting that the city’s response to homelessness—whether through policy, shelter capacity, or public awareness—continues to shape how and when residents pick up the phone.
As always, the numbers leave the “why” to the imagination—whether it’s more people on the streets, more vigilant neighbors, or just the summer sun drawing everyone outside.
The Bottom Line
July's numbers show a city managing persistent challenges, not facing new crises. Crime remains on a positive trajectory despite monthly noise. Homeless-related emergency calls are up, reflecting pressure on services and neighborhoods. Housing pressure is building in central districts, but we're looking at notices, not actual evictions.
The homicide spike deserves attention as a traffic safety issue—five vehicular manslaughter incidents suggest we need better street design, not just violence prevention.
Report generated August 7, 2025, by TransparentSF. We analyze the city’s public data so you don’t have to.
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